Thursday, July 1, 2010

Where, oh where will Lebron (and the others) end up?

I think in today's day and age, more people enjoy off season's as much as they do season's. I think people crave hot stove talk and player movement more now then they have in the past (although, I do think most people like superstars to stay in one place, but I'll address that in a future blog). So, I will address the top free agents, and where I think they will end up.

Lebron James
Named Possible Suitors: Bulls, Cavaliers, Clippers, Heat, Knicks, Nets
My Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers
I have debated this with friends, and I think Lebron comes back to Cleveland in part to his Ohio roots. Tom Penn, on ESPN's NBA Fastbreak, brought up some good points. If you go to Chicago, you have to win 7 NBA titles, because Michael has 6. If you go to Miami, you need to win 2 without Dwayne Wade to top Wade's solo title. Now, Penn was making the case for Lebron going to New York, stating if you win just one title in New York, then you are immortalized forever. I just see Lebron returning to Cleveland, as a situation where the NBA can market a star as bringing a championship to his hometown. Does Lebron need some pieces around him in Cleveland? Sure, but I think Lebron needs some complimentary pieces not superstars. I think superstars at their superstar levels rarely co-exist and are able to win titles. I know there are examples you can point to, and say I am wrong, but I don't think it has happened lately. Even when the Celtics won their title over the Lakers, I don't think Kevin Garnett was still a superstar at this point, I think he had settled into becoming a complimentary player. I think Lebron stays in Cleveland though. But, if I had to rank them in order of where I'd see him going, I'd say Cleveland, then New York, then New Jersey, then Chicago, then Miami and I think that hell has to get a little chilly before he plays for the Clippers.

Dwayne Wade
Suitors: Heat
I think there are other suitors for Dwayne Wade, but just none that are really named. I think Wade probably stays, but what if he went to his hometown team, the Bulls. Imagine the Bulls with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Dwayne Wade, Joakim Noah and the Bulls would probably add another max player in the front court. With that being said, I think more often then not top tier superstars are better off staying put, so I think he stays in Miami.

Chris Bosh
Suitors: Chicago, Miami, NY Knicks
I am very unsure to where I see Bosh headed. I think he would like to play with Lebron James, but I don't see him traveling to Cleveland to do so. Plus, I see him going in a sign and trade wherever he goes. I am going to say he goes to Miami, and I see the Heat sending Michael Beasley, Quentin Richardson and Dorrell Wright back to Toronto. But, with Bosh I really have no solid inclination, if I had to throw down money, I'd just assume as to throw down on Pick 3 or Pick 4.

Joe Johnson
Suitors: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, LA Clippers, NY Knicks
I saw on ESPN's Bottom Line, where Johnson says he wants to stay in Atlanta. If that's the case, then he stays in Atlanta. They can offer him the most money. The only other strong contender I see is New York. Johnson played for Mike D'Antoni in Phoenix, so there is familiarity with the system. Plus, I think Johnson would put up just as big of numbers in New York, as he would in Atlanta. Now, the thing is would Johnson want to play in a big city? Some people just aren't big city guys. I definitely see Johnson playing in the Big Apple or back to Hot 'Lanta.

Dirk Nowitzki
Suitors: Dallas
I see Nowitzki playing for the German National soccer team before he leaves Dallas. I just don't see him playing for anyone other then the Mavericks. I think addressing this topic more is just a waste of finger movement.

Paul Pierce
Suitors: Boston, LA Clippers, New Jersey
I see Pierce probably staying in Boston, but I would not be 100 % (probably 88 %) shocked if he went to play for his hometown Clippers. Pierce is from So Cal, but I am a big advocate (again something that will be discussed in a future blog) of superstars leaving a place that they have had great success damages their legacy. I think Pierce is just looking to cash in a little more with a better contract, as the collective bargaining is expiring pretty soon.

Amare Stoudemire
Suitors: Miami, New Jersey, NY Knicks, Phoenix
Alright, well I got Bosh going to Miami, which means I can't have Amare to the Heat as well, but I also don't see Amare going back to Phoenix even though I have heard he doesn't want to sign with the Knicks. What about Chicago? I don't know that he would fit in with the Bulls. I think Amare is a good player in a run and gun system. Could Golden State land him in some type of trade? Maybe Dan Gadzuric, Vlaidmir Radmanovic, Charlie Bell and a 1st round pick? Now, in no way am I saying, I think that is value for Amare, but it is salary matchup.

Carlos Boozer
Suitors: Chicago, Miami, New Jersey, NY Knicks
Again, I can't place him in Miami, if I have Bosh in Miami, so under that scenario I have Boozer headed to the Bulls. I see Chicago or Miami as the likely destinations for Boozer. I think if he heads to Chicago, the Bulls become a very dangerous team. I see Boozer in Chicago as a good fit, but he's had his eye on Miami for a long time. With that being said, I am going to say Boozer ends up in Chicago.

David Lee
Suitors: New Jeresey, NY Knicks, Toronto, Utah
Put seven or eight teams on a dart board and throw a dart and you hit a team and you have David Lee's destination. ESPN pundits all have mentioned the four teams I have listed above. This one is kind of hard for me to pick, I don't know that I see Lee headed back to the Knicks, but at the same time, I don't know what new team I would see Lee headed to either. I am going to go with the Knicks, but I honestly don't know, but think he would be a good player for many teams.

Rudy Gay
Suitors: LA Clippers, Memphis, Minnesota, New Jersey, NY Knicks
I think all the suitors are strong (maybe with the exception of Minnesota), but what about Phoenix? I don't think they could do a Stoudemire swap, but I think Gay would work well in Phoenix. When it comes down to it, I see him signing with the Clippers or remaining in Memphis, but I would list New Jersey as the most likely dark horse.

Guys I look for to be traded before the seasons starts includes Al Jefferson (Minnesota). He might be some good help in Cleveland for Lebron (if he stays). I don't think Chris Paul leaves New Orleans. Carmelo Anthony is rumored to be on the block if he turns down an extension from Denver. I think Melo will go to the Northeast somewhere. I could see New Jersey or the Knicks. Also, I would put Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas in the trade possibilities, but I think you would just need to find someone to take on those contracts, because they are owed a ton of money.

NBA free agency season, it's fantastic!

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