NFL Coaches.. Will they Stay or Will they Go?

I am now going to analyze on a % scale, in terms of % chance the coach has to return. To make it easy, everything will be broken into 10 % increments. Some will have detailed explanations, others will not. If I think there will be anew coach, I will list who I think the new coach will be.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills-Dick Jauron: 40 % chance he returns. Anytime your owner says we are going to meet and discuss the coach's future once the season is over, I don't think that bodes well for you. I personally don't think Jauron should have ever been hired. I would have hired Jim Haslett for the job when it was open a few years back. I don't think Jauron will survive, but I am not sure that he will be a victim of Black Monday. New Coach: Jim Haslett

New England Patriots-Bill Belichick: I am going to say 100 %. Bill Belichick relocates when Santa sets up shop on the South Pole.

New York Jets-Eric Mangini: I am going to say 60 % he returns. If Brett Favre was coming back, I'd change it to a 30-40 % chance he returns, since everyone in the NFL decides to cater to Brett Favre's every need and whim. But, since I don't think Brett Favre returns, I think Eric Mangingi does return. However, if the Jets take a step backwards next year (which I think they will) then Mangenius departs.

Miami Dolphins-Tony Sparano: 100 % chance he comes back. Only remote situation that I see him not coming back would be if Parcells left Miami and took Sparano with him, but I don't see that happening because if Sparano leaves, it would probably cost another team a draft pick or two. Even though the Dolphins turnaround has been one of the best in NFL history, I don't see a team giving up a draft pick or two for Sparano.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers-Mike Tomlin: Unless Mike Tomlin decides he wants to leave the NFL and join the monastery, 100 % he's back in the Steel City.

Cincinnati Bengals-Marvin Lewis: 30 % chance Marvin returns to Cincy. If I was Marvin, I'd want to get fired, because I think (and I am probably not alone) Cincinnati is one of the worst jobs in the NFL. The Bengals problems are more then the head coach, but I think if you get rid of him, then you overhaul the rest of the team (Bye bye Ocho Cinco, T.J. Housh) and just start fresh. I think Marvin Lewis will get another job in the NFL, he might just have to go in the booth or studio for a year, or take a coordinator's spot. New Coach: Mike Hermerdinger

Cleveland Browns-Romeo Crennel: 0 % chance he returns. I hate to knock people from the Lynchburg area, but I don't think there is anyway in the world you can bring Romeo back to Cleveland. Especially when you lose your security blanket (General Manager Phil Savage). This Browns team has underachieved probably more then any other team in the NFL. Unfortunately, someone has to take the fall for the poor play by Cleveland, and it's going to be Romeo. I don't know that he gets another head coaching job for a long time. Coordinator, yes. Head coach, I just don't think he gets another shot for a long time. New Coach: Marty Schottenheimer.

Baltimore Ravens-John Harbaugh: 100 % chance he comes back. You normally don't get a pink slip when your team makes the playoffs, after missing the previous season. Harbaugh returns for season 2.

AFC South
Tennessee Titans-Jeff Fisher: 100 % chance he comes back. Fisher is probably the best coach in the NFL, and I think he has a job for as long as he wants it.

Indianapolis Colts-Tony Dungy: 60 % chance he comes back. If he wants to come back, it's 100 %. But, has Tony has enough of the league? I don't know, for the Colts sake I hope not. Even if Dungy steps out of the game, I can't say for certain hat he is done in the NFL. If he leaves, obviously Jim Caldwell is the guy who steps in.

Jacksonville Jaguars-Jack Del Rio: 60 % chance he comes back. If he has another one of the seasons, then I'll decrease it to about 20 %, but for now, I think Del Rio comes back. I don't really know why I am so certain he comes back. The Jags weren't really banged up this season or anything, they stayed healthy for most of the year, they just underachieved. Even though, I rank it at 60 % he comes back, I wouldn't be shocked if he got fired. But, I say he returns.

Houston Texans-Gary Kubiak: I say 70 % chance he is back. I think Houston has fared well this year, and next year I would actually give them a legitimate chance of making the postseason, But, I think Kubiak is safe for now and the foreseeable future.

AFC West
Oakland Raiders-Tom Cable: I am going to say 60% he returns. The Raiders did beat Tampa Bay, I think that's going to carry some weight in Al Davis' eyes. Plus, if Cable is going to listen to Al, bow to Al, and not be defiant like Lane Kiffin will, I think Cable returns.

Kansas City Chiefs-Herm Edwards: I am going to say 60 % chance Herm comes back. I don't know why I go with that number, but a good chunk of me is just saying Herm returns to rile up my friend and huge Chiefs fan, Jeff Fawver. I honestly think people like Herm, think he's a good motivator, things of that sort and I think that what keeps him hanging around. I don't know why all these people think these things but I think they do think these things.

San Diego Chargers-Norv Turner: I am going to say 60 % chance Norv comes back. I don't know that he should come back, because I think Norv is one of the more overrated coaches their is. Plus, the Chargers (in some people's eyes) had Super Bowl aspirations. If you have Super Bowl aspirations and finish 8-8, I don't know that you deserve to come back. Plus, if the Broncos don't go totally in the tank, then the Chargers aren't in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos-Mike Shanahan: I am going to say 70 % chance that Shanahan comes back. I know they folded like a house of cards down the stretch, but I think Shanahan has unbelievable job security. He has been there in the good and bad times, and I think he remains coach of the Broncos.

NFC East
Washington Redskins-Jim Zorn: I am going to say 40 % chance he returns. I know he squabbled with Clinton Portis (Dan Snyder's Boy) earlier in the year and the Redskins actually stepped backwards later in the season rather then continue to hold the line. This team was 6-2 and finished the season 2-6. That's 8-8. For a patient person like Dan Snyder, I don't know that 8-8 will satisfy, regardless if Zorn is in his first year or not. I am sure Snyder would throw big money at Bill Cowher if he came back. I don't know that Mike Holmgren would take a job with a meddlesome owner. Other names, I could see Snyder trying to lure Bill Parcells (but would Parcells want to take it after dealing with one meddlesome owner?). To be honest, I don't think Snyder is that meddlesome of an owner as long as you win. Guys like Jerry Jones and Al Davis want their hands in things win, lose or draw. But, I think Zorn doesn't come back and Snyder looks to make a splash with a big name. New Coach: I really don't know. I am afraid to guess, I think if he got rid of Cerrato, and gave total control to someone, I think he could get a Cowher or a Parcells. I really wonder if there is enough money in the world to get a Bill Belichick, which i'd be really curious to see. I think Snyder will go with a big name, but not a college guy. He went there and did that with Steve Spurrier. The only college guy I could see him going with is Pete Carroll. But, if I was forced to make a pick for Snyder, I would go with Steve Mariucci (I don't know that you could call Mariucci a big name, but that's just what my big, fat gut says.)

Dallas Cowboys-Wade Phillips: I am going to say 70 % chance he does not return. I know what Jerry Jones said prior to Week 17, but I don't think there is a way in the world you can justify bringing Wade back after yesterday. There's a ton of fighting in the locker room (depending on who you want to believe) and to me Wade has lost control of that team. I believe if you lose control of your team as a coach, at that point, you have to go. No if's, and's, or but's. New Coach: Again a tough one, it has to be similar to the Raiders, where I think it has to be a coach who is going to have to put up with Jerry in his ear all year. With that being said, I can't imagine it's a guy like Cowher or someone who would want both responsibilities. Neither of these names are sexy, but the Cowboys don't always go for the splash. I am going to say the 'Boys go with either Ron Rivera or Karl Dorrell.

New York Giants-Tom Couglin: 100 % he comes back. Funny, how a couple of years ago, he was on the chopping block and now he is probably considered one of the top 5 coaches in the league.

Philadelphia Eagles-Andy Reid: 60 % he comes back. I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't, but considering how the Eagles are ending the season, I think it's tough to justify him not coming back If Andy Reid doesn't want to come back that's one thing, but I think he will. I see him pulling a Holmgren at some point, where he announces prior to the season that he is not going to come back.

NFC North
Chicago Bears-Lovie Smith: 90 % he comes back. I thought the Bears would be terrible this year (I should listen to my friend, Mike Fisch more. Don't tell him I said that.) but they haven't been nearly as bad as I thought they would be and I credit Lovie Smith for that. The Bears offense is still what I'd call below average. But, I think Lovie is one of the more underrated coaches in the NFL. Lovie stays in Chicago, and this team could win the NFC North next year.

Green Bay Packers-Mike McCarthy: This is a tough one to me. I want to say 50 %, but that's really straddling the fence. So, I am going to say 60 % he comes back. Like Del Rio, it wouldn't shock me if McCarthy didn't return. I think the Jets missing the playoffs actually helps McCarthy's cause. If the Jets made the playoffs, I think McCarthy is axed. Also, if Green Bay lost to Detroit, I could also see McCarthy's head on the chopping block. But, I think McCarthy comes back, but he isn't on the sturdiest of ground as we head into the 2009 season.

Minnesota Vikings-Brad Childress: 70 % he comes back. The Vikings made the playoffs. In some ways, I think the Vikings are one of the more underachieving teams in the league, but in a way, I think they are working with the best they have too. I think people anointed the Vikings as a legit contender a little too quick though.

Detroit Lions-Rod Marinelli: 0 % he comes back. I'd love to give this a 10 %, because I have never really heard a bad word about Rod Marinelli, but you can't bring back a coach who has had a winless season. I mean you would think out of 16 games, you could find 1 win somewhere. I think Marinelli has to go, they need a GM, they need a quarterback, they need some defensive help. Lots of things the Lions need, but unfortunately they can't keep Marinelli. New Coach: Brian Billick. No reason, just a hunch.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons-Mike Smith: 100 % he comes back. Do I even need to address this? Next question.

Carolina Panthers-John Fox: 100 % he comes back. Do I need to give reasons why? Next.

New Orleans Saints-Sean Payton: 80 % he returns. I think he's a good coach, just some bad breaks. The Saints will be back, I mean it's not like they were dismal. They did finish 8-8.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Jon Gruden: 80 % he returns. I don't think they can get anyone better, plus Gruden's a good coach. I know they tanked down the stretch, but I am bringing Shanahan back and they tanked down the stretch also.

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers-Mike Singletary: 100 % he comes back. He just signed a 5 year deal.

St. Louis Rams-Jim Haslett: 40 % he comes back I don't think he did a bad job. Plus, it's never easy taking over during the season for the head coach, when you weren't the head coach (I know he was an assistant on the staff.) But, I like Haslett and I think he should come back and I think the Rams could be vastly improved next season. With that being said, I think Haslett will take over in Buffalo and won't be back with the Rams. New Coach: Jim Schwartz, Defensive Coordinator for the Titans.

Seattle Seahawks-Mike Holmgren: 0 % he returns. He said he wasn't coming back, I believe him when he said he wasn't coming back. I think he will return at some point to coaching. New Coach: Jim Mora Jr. is coach in waiting, so I have to go with him.

Arizona Cardinals-Ken Whisenhunt: 100 % chance he returns. The Bidwell's are cheap and why put together another coaching search when you have a guy that took you to the playoffs.

More NFL talk to come in the future blogs.